In the glow of the afterburner - Insights

The sleek pencil-like jet, described by those who flew it as a “missile with wings”, heralded the onset of supersonic flight in the IAF. Its most famous moment of glory came back in 1971, during the Bangladesh liberation war, but it also saw action during the 1999 Kargil conflict and as recently as the conflict with Pakistan in February 2019, downing a Pakistani F-16 jet. That a jet whose production had been halted decades ago continued to fly in the era of fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) and hypersonic missiles would surprise its designers. Between the design, manufacturing, and engine delays in force modernisation and the lack of long-term vision from the polity, the IAF finds itself in a precarious and unenviable situation.

The origins

The MiG-21 is a supersonic interceptor aircraft designed in the early 1950s by the Mikoyan-Gurevich Design Bureau, named after its founders, Artem Mikoyan and Mikhail Gurevich, in the former Soviet Union. The prototype flew in 1955.

After Pakistan acquired the American Lockheed F-104A Starfighters that could fly at Mach 2 speeds and strategic reconnaissance aircraft Martin RB-57 that could fly above 65,000 feet, the IAF began looking for a high-altitude interceptor to restore the balance. Although three options under consideration were all from the West, Defence Minister V K Krishna Menon pitched the Soviet option.

From 1961, Menon had begun to quietly press the case for Soviet-made combat aircraft, citing the advantages of price, payment in rupees, and willingness for licenced production in India, write Air Marshal Philip Rajkumar (retired) and Pushpindar Singh in the book First to the Last: 50 years of MiG-21s with the IAF. “Menon's arguments were rational, but many in the IAF were initially diffident about this 'unknown' Soviet type and its possible performance limitations in certain roles,” they wrote.

Air Vice Marshal Harjinder Singh (retired) wrote in his memoirs, Birth of an Air Force: “Krishna Menon had an altogether different approach to the matter. With his enthusiasm for self-sufficiency, home manufacture and technological advancement for India, the MiG-21 was the obvious choice. Its manufacture would pitchfork India (and its aviation industry) into a new technological future, as India gradually took over more and more sophisticated items for manufacture. He was right in the end, of course.”

The MiG-21 matched all the attributes IAF was looking for with a maximum speed of Mach 2.05 and an altitude ceiling of 19 kilometres.

In fact, just before the China-India war broke out, on August 26, 1962, the government of India signed a preliminary agreement with the Soviet Union for the manufacture in India of the MiG-21, its engine, avionics, and air-to-air missiles. The earliest variant of the MiG was the MiG-21F-13, also referred to as the Type 74. It could carry two K-13 infra-red homing air-to-air missiles, a single 37 mm NR-37 cannon and a gyro gun sight with radar ranging, as described in the book. Six aircraft were inducted in 1963 at Chandigarh in the No. 28 Squadron – “the first supersonics”.

In the first-ever supersonic air combat in the Indian subcontinent, a MiG-21 shot down a Pakistani F-104 starfighter over the Gulf of Kutch with its front guns, the then IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne wrote in his foreword to the above-mentioned book on February 27, 2013. “By the time the (1971) operations ended, MiG-21s had tallied a total of four F-104, two F-6, one F-86 and one C-130 – an impressive record indeed,” he said. MiG-21s also struck the Governor’s house in Dhaka, in one of the pivotal moments of the war.

The aircraft had high-flying characteristics but also doubled up as a stage-III trainer for rookie pilots to graduate from subsonic trainers to supersonic fighters. This was in the absence of a dedicated Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) till Hawks were inducted in 2008.

More than 11,500 MiG-21s were built worldwide. The IAF inducted 872 MIG-12 jets, of which around 575 were manufactured under licence by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) from 1966 to 1989. Over 100 MiG twin-seat trainers were acquired, but none were manufactured by HAL. At one point, MiG-21s constituted over half the fighter strength. India’s acquisition of the MiG-21 also began the long reign of Russian fighter jets in the IAF, with all other MiG variants procured later — MiG-23, MiG-25, MiG-27 and MiG-29. It also built the aircraft manufacturing ecosystem in the country. In the late 90s, the Sukhoi-30 was contracted, with 272 eventually license-manufactured.

Several veteran fighter pilots who spent their careers on the MiG series, particularly the MiG-21, recall how it was the most suitable as an Operational Readiness Platform (ORP). ORPs are fighter aircraft that are ready at key forward air bases to take off within minutes of any contingency, typically five minutes in peacetime. It is the fastest among all fighters in the fleet to get airborne. 

Domestic manufacturing

On August 29, 1962, the Government of India signed a preliminary agreement with the Soviet Union for the manufacture in India of the MiG-21, its engine, avionics, and air-to-air missiles.

Following this, it was decided to set up three different factories for manufacturing airframes at Nashik, aero engines at Koraput, and avionics at Hyderabad. The air-to-air missiles were made by Indian ordnance factories. In August 1963, Aeronautics India Ltd (AIL) was incorporated as a wholly owned government company to manufacture the MiG-21 aircraft with factories at Nashik and Koraput. In June 1964, the Aircraft Manufacturing Depot (AMD) was set up in 1960 at Kanpur as an Air Force unit to produce airframes for the HS-748 transport aircraft, which was also transferred to AIL.

In the midst of this, a major decision was taken to restructure and consolidate aircraft manufacturing in the country. On October 1, 1964, the government decided to merge AIL and AMD with Hindustan Aircraft Ltd to form a new public sector company, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd in its present form, while retaining the earlier acronym. The erstwhile HAL was incorporated on December 23, 1940, in Bengaluru by Walchand Hirachand in association with the then government of Mysore, with the aim of manufacturing aircraft in India. The central government took over its management in 1942 and in 1951 it came under the Defence Ministry. Till date, HAL remains the only company in the country to license-manufacture aircraft. It has also indigenously designed and manufactured a range of helicopters.

Safety record

A series of accidents in the late 1990s and early 2000s earned the MiG-21 the moniker of “flying coffin” in the media. In a written reply in the Lok Sabha on September 29, 2001, Defence Minister Jaswant Singh said the government does not agree with this kind of “sensationalisation” of security issues. “The MiG-21 remains fully airworthy. These aircraft continue to carry out all the tasks, as planned during their first induction. In addition, maintenance checks and servicing procedures are regularly undertaken so as to ensure full airworthiness of all aircraft.”

However, in another written reply on April 18, 2002, Defence Minister George Fernandes said the IAF lost 102 MiG-21s during the 10 years from April 01, 1992, to March 31, 2002. In these accidents, 39 pilots were killed and an amount of ₹311.99 crore had been lost. A high-powered Committee on Fighter Aircraft Accidents was set up in February, 1997 under the chairmanship of scientific advisor to the defence minister to look into the issues of flight safety. The committee made 84 recommendations. Human error, bird hit and technical defect had been identified as the main causes of accidents by various courts of inquiry, Fernandes had said.

Noting that a variant called the MiG-21 Bis had been planned for upgrades, the minister added: “Although MiG-21 is an ageing aircraft, it remains fully airworthy consequent to regular maintenance checks and servicing procedure. Hence, MiG-21 will remain in the Air Force for some more time till it is gradually phased out, after its Total Technical Life is fully exploited.”

A contract for upgrading 125 MiG-21 Bis or Type 75 aircraft to MiG-21 Bison was signed with Russia on March 1, 1996, and their phase-out was deferred several times. This upgrade added a range of weapons, including the R-77 “beyond visual range” missile, on the Bison. The Bis variant has the R-73 close-range missiles. They would eventually remain in service till 2025. That the MiG-21 was in service this long speaks volumes for the procurement and modernisation process. The MiG-21 crossed the sixth decade with the IAF, being its sole operator, more as an operational necessity than a technological continuum. 

Before the upgrade of the MiG-21 Bis to Bison, the indigenous design and development of a light combat aircraft (LCA) was sanctioned in 1983. A year later, in June 1984, the government constituted the Aeronautical Development Agency in Bengaluru as a registered society under the Ministry of Defence to manage the project. However, the project has been plagued by major delays. A Full Scale Engineering Development programme was sanctioned only in April 1993 and the maiden flight took place on January 4, 2001. It was christened Tejas in 2003.

With the delays, the IAF had to undertake major upgrades of existing platforms. These are captured in a 2015 report of the federal auditor Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). Air headquarters detailed the steps in a February 2015 reply to the CAG, apart from “revising” the phasing out of MiG-21 squadrons. These steps were:

• Upgradation of 125 MiG BIS aircraft at a cost of $626 million, or about ₹2135 crore.

• Upgradation of 62 MiG-29 aircraft into multirole MiG-29UPG standard aircraft at a cost of $964 million – or ₹3841.87 crore – signed in 2008.

• Upgradation of 61 Jaguars at a cost of ₹3113.02 crore signed in December 2009.

• Upgradation of Mirage 2000 jets concluded in 2011 to be undertaken by Dassault Aviation and HAL at a cost of ₹10,947 crore.

“Thus, due to the delay in development and induction of LCA, IAF had to upgrade other aircraft at a cost of ₹20,037 crore. Besides, phasing out of MiG-21 was also revised (January 2013) to utilise the ageing fleet for an extended period,” the CAG noted. The upgrades, an interim measure, can shore up numbers only so far. Many of these upgraded platforms will start to be phased out in the near future. The IAF has six Jaguar squadrons, and three each of MiG-29 and Mirage-2000. Beginning with the oldest of the Jaguars, these have to be phased out by the end of the decade, though the process will be spread over the next decade. Some extensions in the phase-out schedule look likely.

Where the IAF stands today

With the phasing out of the last two MiG-21 squadrons, the squadron strength has fallen to 29, the lowest in decades. The IAF has a sanctioned strength of 42.5 fighter squadrons, as determined in the 60s. The closest the IAF has come to that number is 41 squadrons in 1996, according to data compiled by aviation expert Anchit Gupta. It has been on a downward slope since then. It is unlikely to reach the sanctioned strength of 42 fighter squadrons in the next 10-15 years, and the force will remain at 35 squadrons, the then Air Chief Marshal V R Chaudhari said in October 2021.

On paper, there is a long line-up of inductions planned, between 500 and 600 jets over the next 20 years. However, the majority of them have been in the process for a long time, with delays and extensions being the constants.

The IAF’s 36 Rafale jets are the most modern aircraft currently in its inventory. The Sukhois are lined up for a major upgrade, which will extend their life and keep them technologically relevant for the next two decades. Meanwhile, the IAF is now awaiting the induction of the LCA, called the Mk1A, with the first two aircraft expected to be delivered in October.

The current lineup of LCAs includes 40 LCA-Mk1 jets: 20 Initial Operational Clearance aircraft at ₹2,702 crore and 20 Final Operational Clearance aircraft at a cost of ₹5,989 crore.

A total of 180 Mk1As are lined up in two orders. There is a ₹48,000 crore contract signed in February 2018 for 83 jets, whose deliveries are now awaited. Another order for 97 jets at a cost of ₹67,000 crore has already got final clearance and is awaiting formal conclusion. Amid delays, HAL has said it will scale up production to 24 jets a year. Together, this makes up 220 Mk1 and Mk1A jets, the same number as was envisaged back in the 80s as the MiG-21 replacement.

However, there is a major concern related to HAL’s plans – the timely delivery of the F-404 engines by General Electric (GE). The first engine was delivered in April 2025 after almost a two-year delay, and three engines have been delivered since. According to HAL, GE has assured the Indian company it will deliver 12 engines this financial year. Another aspect still pending is the firing trials and certification of Astra and ASRAAM missiles from the LCA-Mk1A, scheduled to be done in October. This is a critical requirement in the Mk1A programme.

Chequered future

Next in the pipeline is the LCA-Mk2, a different aircraft compared with its predecessor in terms of size and capability. It is designed around the more powerful GE F-414 engine. HAL already has eight F-414 engines for the development of this aircraft. The engine is to be manufactured under licence in India with 80 per cent transfer of manufacturing technologies. Negotiations have been on for several years now, with optimism that it would be concluded next year. The first engine from the facility in India is expected to roll out three years after the contract is signed. The LCA-Mk2 prototype itself is expected to take first flight in 2026. So, the twin challenge is to ensure the timely development of the aircraft and also speed up concluding the engine deal. Any delay will have a direct bearing on force levels as the Mk2 is meant to replace the Mirage 2000, MiG-29, and Jaguars.

In February 2025, IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal A P Singh said India needs to add 35-40 jets every year to make up for the shortage. Both these programmes, LCA-Mk1A and Mk2, are extremely critical to shore up fighter numbers in the single-engine category. However, these are only replacements arresting attrition but not adding new numbers. The new numbers are supposed to come from the multi-role fighter aircraft (MRFA) deal for 114 jets, but that has not moved an inch procedurally since April 2019, when the Request For Information was issued to global aircraft manufacturers. The MRFA itself is a reincarnation of the earlier medium multi-role combat aircraft tender that was conceived in 2001, formally begun in 2007 and eventually cancelled in 2015.

The IAF has now moved a case to the government to drop the MRFA tender and instead go for 114 Rafales through an Inter-Governmental Agreement, as per reports in September. The MRFA envisaged as an open tender with trials and selection was unviable, both in terms of cost and timelines. Having spent nearly ₹10,000 crore on one-time research and development costs for India-specific enhancements in the deal for 36 Rafale jets costing ₹63,000 crore, it makes operational and economic sense to procure more Rafales. However, given the time constraints and costs, are 114 jets a viable option? That has to be quickly assessed.

Future mainstay

The future of the IAF, which ideally should have been the present, is the indigenous FGFA, the advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA) under development. The world has advanced, with three countries — the US, Russia and China — already operating fifth-generation fighters. Several US allies and partners have acquired the F-35, while these three countries — Japan, Türkiye, and South Korea — are developing their own FGFA. India’s AMCA is at least a decade away, assuming it is delivered as promised and adding numbers will take more time.

In 2010, India teamed up with Russia to co-develop an FGFA, and both sides had invested $295 million for the preliminary design and studies. However, India withdrew from the project in 2018 as a final agreement could not be worked out over cost, work share, and technology transfer. Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh recently said New Delhi is talking to partners for importing a small number of fifth-generation fighters as an interim measure. The choice is between the Russian SU-57 and American F-35, and really boils down to one, the SU-57, for operational reasons. However, whether India will go down that route is the question, for a variety of reasons, including geopolitical.

The AMCA is India’s future, but there is a major decision to be made regarding the interim: More Rafales or import a fifth-generation fighter in small numbers or both? The AMCA project has gathered pace in the last several months, with the ADA responsible for designing and developing the aircraft now looking for production partners. Manufacturing is expected to be on a consortium model with HAL and one or two private partners. The project itself — of developing an AMCA prototype to actually take to the skies — would be a 10-year programme, I would imagine, Singh had stated.

The contrast could not have been starker. It is widely acknowledged that the IAF was superior to the Chinese Air Force during the 1962 war, though it was not employed in an offensive role. The picture has changed completely in 2025. China has transformed its aviation industry, quietly building capabilities. The Chinese Air Force and Navy aviation together constitute the largest aviation forces in the region and the third largest in the world, with over 3,150 total aircraft, of which approximately 2,400 are combat aircraft, according to the 2024 US Department of Defence report to the US Congress. These include more than 1,300 fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft. It has also deployed two FGFA, J-20 and J-35, and flown two more advanced fifth-generation jets recently. Recent assessments estimate that China has already fielded over 300 J-20 fifth-gen jets. Pakistan is eyeing 40 J-35s stealth jets from China, among other procurements, after the four-day conflict with India in May. In contrast, India is still in

Looking ahead

Operation Sindoor underscored the role of air power and long-range precision weapons. Air power aside, the Army and Navy have added a significant plethora of long-range precision strike weapons and platforms ranging from rocket systems to BrahMos and other missile systems. However, the primacy of air power will remain a critical element in future conflicts. Particularly, the use of air power, once considered escalatory, in the subcontinent has now been normalised.

Presently, even the most optimistic outlook for force augmentation looks numbing. The MiG-21 has set several benchmarks and proven itself. While celebrating the country’s most prolific fighter jet, India needs a radical rethink in light of the many delays and the critical need to increase numbers and modernise the force.

(The author is fellow, Security Studies Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace India. Views expressed are personal)