Sena's failed strategy of keeping flock together while BJP adds up gains

As Maha political high-jinks near denouement, BJP tots up gains to be made by getting back a govt

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coyly maintained that for the record it had “nothing to do” with the Shiv Sena’s rebellion in Maharashtra which resulted in the Sena dissidents being whisked away first to Surat, under the leadership of Eknath Shinde, a former minister once close to Uddhav Thackeray, the chief minister (CM), and then to Assam as the rebels’ ranks swelled. Gujarat and Assam are BJP-ruled states.

However, the penny dropped when Shinde, who evidently couldn’t hold himself back, acknowledged in a widely circulated video that, “A national party has said it will provide whatever help we need” and likened the “party” to a “sup­er­power that taught a lesson to Pakistan”.

As the theatrics played out in Mumbai between the “official” Sena and the mutineers are reaching a denouement, the BJP issued a directive to all its spokespersons not to brief or speak to the media privately. However, the prospect of finagling the country’s financial capital and a premier political state which contributes 48 Lok Sabha (LS) Members of Parliament and contains 288 Assembly seats, not to forget India’s richest and most powerful civic body, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), was all that apparently mattered to the BJP. As it seems set to install its CM in Mumbai, the BJP totted up the political gains to be made.

While conceding that a degree of anti-incumbency will set in before the next Assembly polls (due September-October 2024), the BJP drew comfort from its reading that a “disapproval rating” would pale in comparison with the “sense of outrage” against the Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi dispensation.

“For the first time, I have experienced outrage against a government. People are not just complaining, they are furious with the Sena. There’s no governance, only rampant corruption. Sena legislators, particularly those from the rural parts, wrote to the CM, saying they can’t face their voters. On top of everything, Uddhav changed the narrative about Hindutva. The Sena printed calendars in green (the colour associated with Islam). Uddhav likes being called ‘Janab Uddhav’. The Sena Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) know without BJP’s help they can’t get re-elected,” alleged a BJP source.

Another party source said, “Even in Delhi, (Arvind) Kejriwal (the CM) has disallowed mosques from using loudspeakers for Azan but not in Maharashtra.”
 

It’s evident that among the BJP’s first priorities would be to place Hindutva front and centre on its political agenda and highlight the “compromises” the Sena reached with its core ideology to “placate” its allies, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress, and  allow Uddhav to “get the better of his ambition” and stay in power.

However, some in the BJP felt along with Hindutva, emphasising “development”— or the BJP’s brand of “development”— was equally fundamental to the party’s revival.

“It’s time to remind people of the trademark achievements which characterised our governments. The roads, highways, flyovers, the Mumbai-Pune Expressway when Nitin Gadkari was the public works minister (in the BJP-Sena government) and Devendra Fadnavis clearing the green hurdles for the Mumbai Metro project and resolving land compensation disputes, all without ado,” said a BJP source.

While the BJP was the single largest party with 106 seats in Maharashtra after the 2019 LS elections — winning 23 of the 25 seats it contested — the Sena, then its partner, heaved the National Democratic Alliance’s share, picking up 18 of the 23 seats it fought on. The BJP-Sena was projected to “sweep” the state elections that followed, but that didn’t happen.

“The NCP consistently does better in the Assembly polls and despite the recent setback, we don’t think it will get beaten in the state elections. We tend to peak at around 100 or a little more which is way short of a majority. Therefore, we need a strong ally and the breakaway Sena faction should serve our purpose in the LS and Assembly polls,” maintained a BJP source.

The BJP awaits a litmus test in the BMC and other civic polls which will likely be conducted after the rainy season. So far, it was ensconced in the BMC but as a junior Sena adjunct. This time, the BJP is working to acquire control of the BMC which has a Rs 46,000-crore budget, on a par with a few states, which the Sena, with an efficiently oiled network, used to its advantage.

A Mumbai political observer said, “The BMC is the big daddy. But the BJP also wants to destroy the NCP’s base in the Thane municipal corporation thro­ugh Shinde who resented Sharad Pawar and his minister, Jitendra Awhad. Awhad is powerful in Thane and Palghar.”

The swathe of rural Maharashtra and the Sena’s significant presence in the villages were other factors that made the splinter attractive to the BJP. Quite a few of the Sena’s rebels are from the hinterland: Dada Bhuse (Outer Malegaon), Shambhuraj Desai (Patan, Satara), Pradeep Jaiswal (Aurangabad central), Yogesh Kadam (Khed), and Deepak Kesarkar (Samantawadi). Eight of the 10 Marathwada MLAs of Sena are dissidents.

While the Sena reaped a bounty in the outback in the elections held since 2004, the perception was that while the rural representatives got ministries, they never became part of the decision-making apparatuses.

The BJP has so far succeeded in unseating Congress governments. This is the first time it will likely topple a significant regional party from power.

According to Gilles Verniers, political science professor at Ashoka University, “This (Maharashtra) episode could also serve as a wake-up call for regional parties which could take measures to prevent poaching... Parties have to provide them (MLAs) incentives to remain loyal.”