BJP remains a complaining ally, but cannot do without Nitish Kumar

The number of MLAs in the ruling coalition is 127 -- BJP: 77, JD(U): 45, HAM (Secular): 4, and Vikassheel Insaan Party: 1. Also, it has the support of one independent MLA, who is a minister

Ram Surat Rai, who belongs to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and is a minister in Bihar, last month publicly called out the chief minister’s office (CMO) over transfers and postings in the revenue and land reform departments.

The minister’s order, sanctioning the removal and posting of more than 150 circle officers and assistant settlement officers, was overturned by the CM’s secretariat.

This incident is just one example of the raging discord in the government. Following the Agnipath protests in the state, the two allies -- the BJP and Janata Dal (United), or JD(U) -- have been hurling allegations against each other. The BJP charged that during the protests, the protesters were given the go-ahead to target its leaders in the state. Earlier, despite its disagreement, the BJP was forced to support a caste-based census in various meetings.

Differences have reached a level that is embarrassing. The Speaker of the Assembly was compelled to adjourn the session when the JD(U) refused to attend to discuss the BJP’s proposal for the “best legislator”.

There was another interesting development. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has acquired four of the five MLAs from the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), raising the party’s number in the 243-member Bihar Assembly to 80.

Equation change?

The number of MLAs in the ruling coalition is 127 -- BJP: 77, JD(U): 45, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular): 4, and Vikassheel Insaan Party: 1. Additionally, it has the support of one independent MLA, who is a minister.

On the other hand, the RJD-led Grand Alliance has 115, making it still seven seats short of the 122 needed for a majority in the Assembly.

Or just seven short, depending on how you look at it.

Bihar BJP President Sanjay Jaiswal has said the coalition government is running and will continue to run.

“Before describing the RJD as the single-largest party, it should be considered that during the 2020 Assembly election, the BJP had contested 110 seats while the RJD 157. It was decided before the election that Nitish Kumar would be CM and our party would have two deputy CMs.”

Senior RJD leader Shivanand Tiwari has refuted this.

“We will consolidate our party’s base for the upcoming election. Our party’s strength has unquestionably improved. I doubt Nitish Kumar will take any steps that will change the political scene in Bihar.”

According to journalist Surendra Kishore, Nitish Kumar has worked hard to maintain an ideological stance that is different from the BJP because he is uncomfortable with the contentious public statements being made by local BJP leaders. Of course, this has harmed the reputation of the alliance and the cohesion of the government.

The BJP’s compulsions

Journalist Priya Ranjan Bharti said “the BJP does not have the strength to change the CM”. The lack of a strong local leadership, organisational foundation, and ideological base in comparison to other states is the reason for this.

“Politics in Bihar has always had a socialist bent. Nationalism and Hindutva are not that significant.”

Challenges of voter base

Although the BJP regards upper-caste voters to be its key supporters, no notable leaders from the castes have been identified to date to lead. To expand its voter base, the BJP is seeking to engage with the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). The RJD and other parties like the JD(U) receive a sizable portion of the votes cast by the OBCs and EBCs. The minority community largely supports the RJD.

Additionally, the BJP is compelled to maintain its ties with Nitish Kumar. Recently, in a video, senior-most BJP leaders in Bihar were seen jostling to stand alongside him in the front row.

“Lalu Prasad once sought two-party politics in the state and advised the BJP and RJD to settle the Nitish factor together,” a BJP leader in the state said.

“For the Lok Sabha election in 2024, the BJP will have to give half the seats in the state to the JD(U). Then, it will be harder for the BJP to be as ambitious as it has been so far.”