From BBC documentary to Hindenburg, the political fallout remains unclear

The Adani eruption, which has come out of the blue, has two aspects. One is financial, and the other is political. 

The financial part is mainly for Mr Gautam Adani to deal with. With the immense reputational damage because of the allegations, it will not be easy for him at all. The other aspect is the political damage, and that is for the BJP to handle. At this point, it isn't clear what the overlap between the financial and the political is or will be.

Meanwhile, nine assembly elections are coming up this year and a general election next year, making it ten elections in just 12 months. And just before the elections and the electoral processes get underway in earnest, three things have happened in quick succession. 

The first is the release of the BBC documentary on the Gujarat riots of 2002, in which it is suggested that the PM had a role, even if the Supreme Court has concluded there is no evidence.

The second, reported by many Indian websites, is a criminal complaint filed against Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of UP, in Switzerland by a body of London-based barristers called Guernica 37, that he is responsible for, hold your breath, murder and other violations of human rights. 

The third is the publishing of the unofficial forensic audit of the Adani Group by a New York-based company called Hindenburg Research. It specialises in exposing corporate fraud and sometimes benefits from short selling. 

We will have to wait and see what more is in the offing. But as we wait, we must also marvel at the sheer coincidence of the three episodes happening so quickly. 

Be that as it may, the BBC documentary is unlikely to affect the BJP's chances in the forthcoming elections. As we saw after the Sikh riots of 1984, in which over 3,000 Sikhs were killed. These were exactly like the Gujarat riots of 2002, in which a far fewer number of Muslims were killed. The elections that followed the 1984 and 2002 riots showed that the Indian voter couldn't be bothered with minorities. Sad though it is, the idea of minority rights is a preoccupation of the intellectual elite. 

The case filed against Mr Adityanath is also of no electoral significance for the same reason. He is seen as a champion of Hindus, and that's enough. Plus, he has built a lot of public goods — roads, schools, hospitals etc. — in UP. Lastly, it's unclear whether the Swiss prosecutors have admitted the complaint. 

As to the report on the Adani Group, we don't yet know how it will play out politically. But the BJP is bound to be somewhat concerned because of what the public believes, namely, Mr Adani's proximity to the prime minister. However, will the voters care enough? That remains doubtful.

Can the BJP play some sort of victim card, propagating the idea of a conspiracy? One must hope that it will not because, as the blocking of the BBC documentary has shown, it will only draw unnecessary attention to things with almost no electoral consequence. 

The chances are that as the din over the Karnataka election gathers steam, these things will be quickly forgotten. Indeed, it's quite remarkable that the Opposition hasn't gone to town yet. Clearly, it sees no political advantage. Even Mr Arvind Kejriwal is being very restrained, so far at least. 

As to the Budget session of Parliament, which starts next week, one can be sure that it will be tumultuous. But there's nothing new about that. However, what is new is the new chairman of the Rajya Sabha, Mr Jagdeep Dhankar. How he conducts the House will be very interesting to watch.