FPI buying streak signals more upside for Indian equities, suggests data

Domestic equity markets reached a 10-day streak of net foreign fund inflows on August 11, which has helped the NSE Nifty50 Index return to positive territory for the year.

The burst may be a signal for investors to keep buying stocks. There have been 43 other instances of such double-digit stretches of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) buying over the past five years, and in 95 per cent of those cases, the benchmark was up after an additional 60 days — with an average gain of 9 per cent.

The average 20-day and 10-day gain after a double-digit stretch of buying is 2.7 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, reveals Bloomberg data. On occasions the market gained, following a sustained bout of FPI buying, is 9.5 per cent over a 60-day period.

On the other hand, the average losing return after such a bout is just an average 3.4 per cent. FPIs turned net-buyers of Indian equities on a calendar month basis last month for the first time since September 2021. Overseas funds have pumped in $3 billion into stocks so far this month and have been net-buyers on most occasions.