Still, the rebound in summer tourism represents an opportunity to flex soft-power muscles. Cyprus, a favourite destination for Russians, is down about 25% compared with 2019; Finland is calling for restrictions on visas for Russians. Regional and American tourists have helped offset the drop, with foreign-policy values and Ukraine solidarity featuring in social-media sentiment, according to Olivier Henry-Biabaudof TCI Research, a Belgian travel-industry consulting firm. Research firm Oxford Economics expects arrivals to Western Europe this year to be 21% below 2019 levels, compared to a forecast 39% fall for Eastern Europe.
A Cold War-ification of travel may seem like cold comfort when Europe faces recession this winter. The tourism economy is not going to bring energy independence or manufacturing growth to a region sorely in need of both. The weak euro travelers love is not a point of political pride.