Explained: What happens if British PM Johnson wins the confidence vote?

British PM Boris Johnson faces a confidence vote after more than 15% of elected Conservative lawmakers withdrew their support for the British leader following the "partygate" scandal. The results of the vote are expected in the wee hours of Tuesday (in India). So what lies ahead?

What will happen during the confidence vote? 

All 359 Conservative MPs can vote. So if Johnson gets 180 votes, it will secure the majority he needs to survive. If Johnson wins, he remains in office and cannot be challenged again for 12 months (according to the Conservative Party's rules). If he loses, he must resign and is barred from standing in the leadership election that follows.

What happens if Johnson wins the confidence vote?

Even if Johnson is protected from a new vote of confidence, a significant mutiny could make his leadership untenable.

What would happen if Johnson loses?

If Johnson loses, there will be a leadership contest and his replacement would become prime minister. If several candidates come forward, a secret vote is held among Conservative MPs to whittle down the field. 

Next in line?

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss have long been the front-runners in any potential leadership contest, though Sunak’s chances have been hurt by revelations about his tax affairs. 

Health Secretary Sajid Javid is another who might run while from outside the government, Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and Jeremy Hunt, a former foreign secretary, could be contenders. 

Still, the lack of any clear successor who could connect with voters ahead of the next election has been one factor holding back potential rebels.
 

How Tories get rid of their leaders

The fate of Tory PMs is determined by rank-and-file Conservative MPs known as the 1922 Committee. It takes its name from a meeting of Tory lawmakers 100 years ago that ultimately brought down a coalition government and led to the Conservatives winning the ensuing election. Sir Graham Brady, who is in-charge of collating the letters of no-confidence received by the 1922 Committee, said the threshold of 15% of the Tory parliamentary party, or 54 MPs, seeking such a vote against Johnson has been met