Rupee at record low as US dollar surges globally, domestic markets fall

Fears of a global recession weigh on the unit despite RBI measures to boost dollar inflow

The rupee weakened to a fresh low against the US dollar on Tuesday as the greenback surged to a 20-year high globally and domestic equities suffered losses, dealers said.

The rupee was Tuesday morning trading at 79.61 against the US dollar versus its close of 79.44 on Monday.

The US dollar index, which measures the unit against six major currencies, was at 108.42 this morning, as against 107.67 on Monday. The index was at levels last seen around August 2002, Bloomberg data showed.

At 10:40 am IST, the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty were trading 0.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent lower, respectively.

The dollar has been on a strengthening spree of late as worries over slowing global economic growth amid an energy crisis in Europe and aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have sent investors rushing to the safety of the US currency.

In 2022, the US dollar index has gained 13 per cent. The rupee has depreciated 6.6 per cent versus the dollar over the same period.

The broad dollar strength comes at a time when record outflows of overseas investment and elevated crude oil prices have rendered the outlook on India’s current account deficit unfavourable.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a slew of measures to ease pressure on the rupee, but currency traders predict an unfavourable near-term outlook for the domestic currency amid global headwinds.

The RBI, on Monday, permitted the international trade settlement in rupees, a move that could be aimed at facilitating transactions with Russia, analysts said. Last week, the central bank announced relaxations in overseas investment in government securities as well as sums raised abroad through External Commercial Borrowings.

“In the recent past, RBI has taken steps that could ease the pressure on the rupee viz-a-viz country’s deficit. However, so far the positive impact of the same hasn’t yet been translated into the USDINR pair given by overpowering glooms and the risk-averse environment globally,” said Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors, in a note.

“The given fundamentals shall likely sustain its pressure on the rupee keeping the upside open well in place. As the pair breaks its crucial 79.50 levels, it’s a little far from the next big figure 80.00 levels that could be seen in the short run,” he said.