Statsguru: India's massive population challenge explained in six charts

Although India’s population crossed 1.4 billion in 2021, the growth rate has reduced drastically over the last few years.

Data from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 report shows that the country’s growth rate almost halved from 1.38 per cent in 2010 to 0.68 per cent in 2021. It is expected to decline further to 0.24 per cent by 2050 (see chart 1).

However, India is still expected to surpass China to become the most populous country by 2023 — five years ahead of target. By the end of this decade, India will have 7 per cent more people than China (see chart 2).

The National Family Health Survey data released last year showed that India’s overall sex ratio had improved. UN data indicates that the sex ratio at birth has also marginally improved in the previous few years. In 2010, 110 males were born for every 100 females. The ratio reduced to 108 in 2021 (see chart 3).

India is not the only country witnessing a decline in population growth rates; the world over, fertility rates have decreased. In 1990, the global fertility rate was 3.3; in 2021, it fell to 2.1 births per woman — closer to the replacement level (see chart 4).

But, as fertility rates drop, the dependent population and pressure on government finances is expected to increase. The share of the population over 65 is expected to go up from 9.7 per cent in 2022 to 16.4 per cent in 2050. The UN report also indicated the impact of Covid-19 on life expectancy (see chart 5).

The pandemic reduced life expectancy across the world. A Business Standard analysis found that India ranked 13th from the bottom in terms of worsening life expectancy as Covid wiped off 3.6 years of average life in India. Life expectancy at birth reduced from 70.9 years in 2019 to 67.2 years in 2021. Russia, Mexico, and South Africa are some other developing economies, which performed worse than India (see chart 6).
 

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