Current account deficit likely to hit three-year high at $43.8 bn in FY22

The country's current account deficit is likely to hit a three-year high of 1.8 per cent or USD 43.81 billion in FY22, as against a surplus of 0.9 per cent or USD 23.91 billion in FY21, a report said on Thursday.

According to an assessment by India Ratings, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) has moderated to USD 17.3 billion or 1.96 per cent of GDP in the fourth quarter of FY22 as against USD 8.2 billion or 1.03 per cent in the year-ago period, and massively down from USD 23.02 billion or 2.74 per cent in Q3, which was a 13-quarter high.

The improvement in the key numbers are due to the remarkable improvement in merchandise exports in FY22, when it grew 42.4 per cent as against a negative 7.5 per cent in the pandemic-hit FY121.

But exports could face significant headwinds from rising uncertainty and volatility in the global economy primarily because of the spike in commodity prices, especially crude oil after Russia invaded Ukraine, the report warned, and pointed to the lower forecast of global growth by the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which sees the global economy clipping at just about 3 per cent in 2022, down from 4.7 per cent forecast earlier.

The world trade body has pegged the import growth for India's key exporting partners such as North America and Europe at 3.9 per cent and 3.7 per cent, respectively, in 2022, lower than 4.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively, forecast earlier.

However, higher oil prices will benefit oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, which will lead to higher real incomes, and thus, higher import demand which is expected to increase by 11.7 per cent in 2022 from 8.7 per cent forecast earlier.

On the other hand, India's merchandise imports are expected to accelerate on the back of escalated commodity prices and rupee depreciation in FY23.

The agency expects merchandise exports to come in at USD 112.5 billion, growing by 17.7 per cent in the first quarter of FY23, up 85.7 per cent over the same quarter last fiscal.

Merchandise imports grew 44.1 per cent during April-May 2022 to USD 120.9 billion and are expected to stand at USD 182.9 billion.

Moreover, the rupee is expected to average at 77.1 against a US dollar in Q1, down 4.5 per cent over Q1 FY22.

Notwithstanding the high base effect of Q4 of FY21, up 20.4 per cent, merchandise exports in Q4 of FY22 grew 29.2 per cent to a record USD 116.8 billion.

Import volumes of top exporting partners such as the US and Europe rose 9.7 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively, in Q4. As a result, overall exports crossed the USD 400-billion target, scaling a life-time high of USD 421.8 billion in FY22, up from USD 296.3 billion in FY21, a growth of 42.4 per cent, as against a negative 7.5 per cent in FY21.

FY23 so far has been encouraging as exports grew 22.9 per cent in April-May. But if the Ukraine war lingers on, which can lead to stagflation in the developed world and continued supply chain disruptions, can hit exports, the report warned.

Key commodities such as petroleum products, iron & steel, aluminium & its products, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, sugar, motor vehicles and cotton yarn contributed roughly 72.2 per cent to exports growth, growing in the range of 14-158 per cent in value terms in Q4.

Gold imports declined 54 per cent in Q4 after seven quarters as demand fell by the same level in the quarter due to the onset of the third wave of the pandemic.