Week after India's first monkeypox case, global numbers rise further

The government has issued guidelines for dealing with the illness

A week after a person was first detected with monkeypox in India, global numbers have risen further, including another case detected in India.

The total number of daily cases as of 20th July was 555, according to data collated by OurWorldInData.org based on work done by Edouard Mathieu, Saloni Dattani, Hannah Ritchie, Fiona Spooner and Max Roser.  The global numbers represent a 208 per cent increase from a month ago, when daily numbers were close to 180 on a seven-day moving average basis as seen in chart 1.  A second case was reportedly detected on Monday, after the first one which was announced on Thursday, 14th July.  

The world has added 3,389 cases in the seven days since 14th July in total.  An analysis of data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that more than 90 per cent of the 15,378 cases come from ten countries. Spain tops the list with 3,125 cases. This is followed by the US (2,322), United Kingdom (2,137), Germany (2,110) and France (1,453) as seen in chart 2.

India accounts for less than 0.02 per cent of the total share of global cases so far. Government treatment guidelines have been issued.

The WHO has advised caution amid the disease spreading to new countries.  

"Although we're seeing a declining trend in some countries, others are still seeing an increase…six countries reported their 1st cases last week. Some of these countries have much less access to diagnostics and vaccines making the outbreak harder to track and harder to stop," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus during a media briefing on Wednesday.

“Tomorrow, the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee will reconvene to review the latest data, and to consider whether the (monkeypox) outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern… Regardless of the committee’s recommendation, WHO will continue to do everything we can to support countries to stop transmission and save lives,” he added.

Monkeypox is similar to smallpox in terms of how it presents itself in patients. Smallpox was declared to have been eradicated from the globe in 1980. Monkeypox has been detected in multiple smaller outbreaks since 1970.  Recovery usually happens even without treatment in most cases according to a World Health Organisation note, and symptoms typically last between 2 to 4 weeks.

“Severe cases occur more commonly among children and are related to the extent of virus exposure, patient health status and nature of complications. Underlying immune deficiencies may lead to worse outcomes,” it said.

The mean age of confirmed cases is 41, and 99 per cent of cases for which information is available are men; according to a 19th July Monkeypox 2022 global epidemiology report from real-time infectious disease data tracker, ‘Global.health’

Cases can at times be severe, noted a 19th May World Health Organisation note on the illness.

“The case fatality ratio of monkeypox has historically ranged from 0 to 11 % in the general population and has been higher among young children. In recent times, the case fatality ratio has been around 3–6%,” it said.