Top 10 in broadband? India needs to go from 1.95% to 40% adoption

Mukesh Ambani wants to achieve the target by deploying 5G fixed wireless access to homes

Mukesh Ambani’s statement at last week’s annual general meeting of Reliance Industries that his ambition is to take India into the top 10 countries in the world in terms of fixed broadband adoption, has put the spotlight on the need for the quick deployment of 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) to homes.

Based on International Telecommunications Union (ITU) data for over 237 countries in 2021, to be in the top 10, India — which currently ranks a poor 138th in the world —  would need to have around 40 fixed broadband subscriptions for every 100 citizens. As per ITU data, in 2021, India had only 1.95 connections for every 100 citizens, far lower than most key countries of the world.

In other words, to take India to the top 10 brigade, there needs to be a multi-fold rise in fixed broadband subscriptions — from 27.5 million in 2021 to around 480 million at current population levels.  

India’s adoption of fixed broadband is not only lower than developed countries like China (37.5 fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants) or the US (37.1), but is also significantly below that of other southeast Asian countries such as Thailand (18.3), Philippines (8.48), Malaysia (11.1), Indonesia (4.53) and Latin American nations like Mexico (18.4 ) or Argentina (23 ). Even Bangladesh, with a penetration of 5.9 per 100, and Sri Lanka, with 11.8, does much better.        

However, India is amongst the top 10 in the world in terms of sheer numbers. As pet ITU 2021 data, at the top of the chart is China, with 535.7 million subscriptions, followed by the US (127 million), Japan (44.9 million), Brazil (41.5 million), Russia and Germany (36.8 million) and UK, just slightly ahead of India at 27.7 million.

ITU's definition of fixed broadband includes fibre-to-the-home (FTTH), cable modem, terrestrial fixed wireless access, satellite broadband and even DSL, amongst others, with download speeds of 256 kbit/s. It includes both residential subscriptions as well as those by organisations.  

But is the huge increase in the adoption of fixed broadband as envisaged by Ambani achievable? Especially in a country where the internet revolution has happened through mobile phones? India has over 771 million mobile internet subscribers (the bulk of them on 4G), according to data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) for June this year.

But 5G could lead to a dramatic change — just as 4G did by hooking the masses to mobile internet. Ambani wants to replicate the same process with fixed broadband and has announced that Reliance Jio will use 5G-powered FWA in the last mile to replace FTTH, which, the company hopes, will help it reach over 100 million homes..

Airtel has also pushed the pedal on increasing its number of subscribers, but is going  through the traditional FTTH route and tying up with cable operators for the last mile.

India has over 300 million homes with TV, and more than one-third are using pay TV. There are 800 million smart phone users in the country. And according to estimates, paid OTT subscribers in the country have spent over $1 billion on subscriptions in 2021.