Industry pins hope on exports, ethanol procurement by OMCs for buoyancy; opening stock in Oct 2019 seen at thrice 'normative requirement' of 5 mn tonnes in carryover stock
Droughts are withering cane fields in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka, and the monsoon is delayed, reducing prospects for the coming crop
Sugar output in Maharashtra, the largest sweetener producing state in India, was reported at 10.07 million tonnes for the season 2018-19 (Oct-Sept)
Drop estimated at 0.5% to 10.1 million tonnes for ongoing crushing season 2018-19; state govt gets tough on cane arrears
The drop will reduce exports from the world's second-biggest sugar producer and likely help support global prices that have fallen 17% so far in 2018
Industry body ISMA to meet on Oct 29 to assess output, initial indications estimate 32 million tonnes for 2018-19 against 32.25 million tonnes previous year
According to ISMA, sugar output could go up because of higher availability of sugarcane
Industry officials and traders said that farmers' devotion to cane would drive sugar production to a fresh peak in the next marketing season
Trade body already revised estimates up by 10% to 29 million tonnes
With a sharp increase in output in the first three months of the current cane crushing season, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma) has raised the country's production forecast by four per cent or one million tonnes to 26.1 mt for 2017-18 (October-September).It has also begun lobbying with the government on early measures to check a likely fall in prices, suggesting opening the door for export.Total sugar production was reported at 10.33 mt in the December quarter this year, compared to 8.19 mt in the same period last year. Annual sugar consumption is estimated at 25 mt. The additional one mt of output, in addition to the carryover stock of nearly four mt from the earlier season, would worsen mills' financial health this year, say observers. "On the basis of satellite images of harvested and unharvested area, the trend of yields and sugar recoveries till now ,as also expected yield/sugar recovery in the balance period of the season, we have revised the sugar production ...
Sugar prices have started falling below the cost of production and this could lead to cane payment arrears
Releasing the latest data, the ISMA said the increase in sugar output so far is basically from two major producing states -- Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra
India's sugar output in October is likely to achieve only 40 per cent of the earlier assured quantity.Based on assurances from individual mills and extrapolating of non-responsive ones, the apex industry body had in August sent a written commitment to the Union ministry of food for 800,000 tonnes in October. To achieve this, mills planned to advance the crushing season by three to four weeks. Thus, instead of commencing cane crushing by the end of October or early November, leading mills in Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra - the four big producing states - had said they'd start by the first week of October. The move was aimed to target crushing of the early variety of sugarcane -- this normally goes for jaggery and khandsari production, since sugar mills don't operate at this time. The industry estimates jaggery and khandsari units procure around 15 per cent of cane across the country.However, delay in annual maintenance work has caused over two weeks of extension .
This could reduce the import demand from the world's biggest consumer of sugar
Maharashtra's production fell 50% from a year ago to 4.18 million tonnes in 2016/17
The states have been told to collect mill-wise sugar yields instead of taking the states' average
We will meet again after two weeks to re-assess these production numbers, says govt official
The projection report in July 2016-17 shows the sugar production at 5.5 mt, compared with last season's 8.4 mt
Less cane availability due to drought and lack of ratoon crop contribute to the dip