Page 30 - Indian Economy

India likely to remain fastest growing major economy: RBI Governor Das

Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Saturday exuded confidence that India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy with a likely growth rate of 7 per cent in 2022-23 on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals and financial sector stability. Speaking at the HT Leadership Summit 2022, Das emphasised that the country's economy remains resilient, supported by the banking and non-banking sectors. Das said the entire world has withstood multiple shocks. "I call it triple shocks of COVID-19 pandemic, then the war in Ukraine, and now the financial market turmoil." The Governor said the financial market turmoil is mainly emanating from the synchronised monetary policy tightening across the world by central banks, especially those in advanced countries, led by the US Fed, and the spillovers are being felt by the emerging market economies, including India. He further said in this kind of successive turmoils, European Union is facing a recession situation, but there are

India to be one of top three economic powers in next 10-15 years: FM

India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers globally over the next 10-15 years, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday. Speaking at the US-India Businesses and Investment Opportunities event here, Sitharaman said, the global economic outlook remains challenging and the Indian economy is not insulated from the impact of global economic developments. However, she said, India has carved out its growth trajectory supported by the above-normal south-west monsoon, public investment, strong corporate balance sheets, upbeat consumer and business confidence and receding threat of the Covid pandemic. "India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. It has recently surpassed the UK to become the fifth-largest economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers globally over the next 10-15 years," she said. Listing out some of the ...

Moody's slashes India's GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 70 bps to 7%

Weak rupee, and high oil prices cited as reasons for the downward revision

Direct Tax collections rise 31% YoY at Rs 10.54 trillion till November 10

Refunds amounting to Rs 1.83 trillion were issued during 1st April, 2022 to 10th November, 2022

Industrial production grows 3.1% in September, mining output up 4.6%: Data

India's industrial production grew 3.1 per cent in September, according to official data released on Friday. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had grown 4.4 per cent in September 2021. As per the IIP data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the manufacturing sector's output grew by 1.8 per cent in September 2022. The mining output rose 4.6 per cent and power generation increased 11.6 per cent during the month.

Better tax collection to help meet FY23 fiscal target of 6.4%: Report

The Centre is likely to meet the key fiscal targets led by the deficit getting contained at the budgeted target of 6.4 per cent in the current financial year, mainly due to better tax collection, according to a report. Bank of America Securities on Friday said the key risks to budgeted fiscal deficit include higher subsidies, lower divestment proceeds, excise duty cut on petrol and diesel. But the offsetting factors include better than estimated tax revenue buoyancy, higher nominal GDP growth, and lower capex loan to states, it said in a report. Accordingly, the brokerage said it expects the government to meet the budgeted FY23 fiscal deficit target at 6.4 per cent of GDP despite upside risks. The report also noted that it was expecting the government to undershoot the fiscal deficit target when the budget was presented at 6 per cent. However, as the year progressed, the outbreak of the Ukraine war started to exert meaningful pressure on global commodity prices, particularly food,

BS Number Wise: Here's why India's poverty estimates are problematic

Traditional estimates of poverty in the country rely on indicators that are outdated or inaccurate

Current account deficit likely to be lower at 3% this fiscal: SBI report

State Bank of India has pencilled in lower current account deficit at 3 per cent for this fiscal as against the minimum consensus of 3.5 per cent, citing rising software exports, remittances and a likely USD 5-billion jump in forex reserves via swap deals. Every USD 10 increase in crude prices impacts the Current Account Deficit (CAD) to the tune of 40 basis points while the same on fuel inflation is 50 bps and also results in 23 bps decline in growth, according to Soumyakanti Ghosh, the chief economic advisor at SBI. CAD has a counter cyclical shock absorber, he said in a report on Thursday. Exchange rate is the major contributor to software exports growth and 40 per cent of its variation is explained by exchange rates. "If we translated these numbers in actual terms, every Re 1 fall against the dollar leads to an increase in software exports by USD 250 million". This, along with an expected USD 5 billion-forex reserve accrual by way of swap transactions and higher remittances, wi

Inflation likely slowed in Oct, still well above RBI target band: Report

Forecasts ranged from 6.40% to 7.35%, with three-quarters of respondents expecting a figure under 7.00%, well below the recent peak of 7.79% in April. The RBI's tolerance band is 2-6%.

India's progress in next 25 years will be tech driven: Jitendra Singh

Union minister Jitendra Singh Wednesday said the progress of the country in the next 25 years will be technology driven and the sooner the youth of the country realise that the better it would be for the nation. Speaking at the inauguration of the three-day Kashmir Expo start-up for livelihood' event at SKICC here, Singh appealed to the youth to avail of unexplored start-ups. The entire progress and growth in the years to come is going to be technology-driven, and the sooner we understand this, the better for us, said the Union Minister of State (Independent charge) in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO). However, he said the country lacked a direction before Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. The paradox is that we had the potential, we had the capacity, but, we didn't have the direction There was no priority at the policy, planning level. That gap has been filled by Modi now with thinking that there is no alternative, no option without it in the future, he ...

India's FY24 GDP growth to slow down to 5.5%, says UBS India report

India's GDP growth will slow down to 5.5 per cent in FY24 from the 6.9 per cent expected in the current fiscal 2022-23, a Swiss brokerage said on Wednesday. The slowdown was attributed to slowing global growth and tightening of monetary policies in the report by economists at UBS India. It said India will be among the "lesser affected economies" in the world, but made it clear that the world's fifth largest economy is not immune from global headwinds. "Factoring in the delayed impact of monetary tightening on domestic demand, we continue to expect India's growth to remain below consensus in FY24. In our base case, we expect India's real GDP growth to slow from 6.9 per cent in FY23 to 5.5 per cent in FY24 before settling at the long-run average of 6 per cent in FY25," the report said. Responding to high domestic inflation and rate hikes by global central banks, the RBI has already hiked the policy rate by 1.90 per cent since May this year and is only expected to hike more, which can

Inflation targeting in letter and spirit

There have not been good enough reasons outside of the RBI for inflation to have stayed above 6 percent

India's services exports to buck recession fears; see 25-30% growth

Notwithstanding the threat of a recession looming ahead for the developed economies, exporters say they expect a similar trend to continue in the second half of the year

FY23 GDP growth may not exceed 7%, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

The IMF sees FY23 GDP growth at 6.8 per cent compared with 7.4 per cent earlier, while the RBI has cut its forecast to 7 per cent from 7.2 per cent

Gujarat and Rajasthan are Corporate India's investment lodestone

Gujarat tops with Rs 4 tn in fresh investments, Rajasthan is second with Rs 2.37 tn investments in FY22

Demonetisation was a colossal failure which crippled economy, says KTR

Demonetisation was a colossal failure which crippled the growing Indian economy, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) working president K.T. Rama Rao said on Monday

Growing unemployment: Battle of two parallel realities

The duality between the ground reality of tangible unemployment and the perception created by events like "rozgar melas" will likely continue till the next general election

MSMEs hold the key to $5-trn economy

A proactive and cohesive approach by the government to support micro, small and medium enterprises could raise their contribution to GDP to about 50 per cent in the foreseeable future

India in a sweet spot despite global fears of recession: IDFC AMC CEO

'Conditions are ripe for a private capital expenditure cycle over the next few years'

Demonetisation: Big jump in cash with public at Rs 30.88 trn in 6 yrs

Currency with the public has jumped to a new high of Rs 30.88 lakh crore as of October 21, illustrating that cash usage is still robust even six years after the demonetisation move. At Rs 30.88 lakh crore, the currency with the public is 71.84 per cent higher than the level for the fortnight ended November 4, 2016. On November 8, 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced the decision to withdraw Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denomination notes with the ultimate aim of reducing corruption and black money in the economy. The intent of the move, which was criticised by many experts for poor planning and execution, was to make India a "less cash" economy. As per the fortnightly data on money supply released by the RBI on Friday, the currency with the public increased to Rs 30.88 lakh crore as on October 21. The central bank data for Reserve Money had put the currency in circulation at Rs 17.7 lakh crore on November 4, 2016. Currency with public refers to notes and coins used by people to