Page 3 - Current Account Deficit

India, US 10-year yield spread at its lowest in 12 years, shows data

The current spread is nearly 142 bps lower than the 10-year average spread of 518 bps, and 66 bps lower than the 20-year average spread of 442.3 bps

Yield spread points to the muted market returns, says BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas said it has a cautious stance on the Indian markets amid lack of positive catalyst for further earnings upgrades amid slowing global demand, lofty valuations and a slowdown in retail flows

Current account deficit expected to reach 3.4% in Apr-June: India Ratings

India Ratings expects the current account deficit to hit a 36-quarter high of 3.4 per cent of GDP or USD 28.4 billion in the June quarter, against a 0.9 per cent surplus a year ago. In the March 2022 quarter, the deficit was a moderate 1.5 per cent or USD 13.4 billion, while in Q1FY22 the current account surplus was USD 6.6 billion or 0.9 per cent of GDP when the country was hit by the second wave of the pandemic, according to the agency. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit is expected to jump to a 36-quarter high after the 1QFY14 when it was 4.7 per cent. In absolute terms, it will be at a 38-quarter high after 3QFY13 when the deficit was USD 31.8 billion, India Ratings said in a note on Monday. Although merchandise exports touched a record high of USD 121.2 billion in Q1FY23, outward shipments are likely to slow down and come in at USD104.2 billion in Q2FY23, growing by a meagre 1.4 per cent in Q2 due to global headwinds. The International Monetary Fund in July slashed

CAD to come in at 9-year high in first quarter of FY23: Ind-Ra

Merchandise exports likely to slow down and come in at $104.2 bn in second quarter of the year

India's current account deficit likely jumped to a near-decade high: Poll

India's current account deficit likely widened to its highest in nearly a decade in the April-June quarter, driven by soaring global commodity prices and the biggest capital outflows

Best of BS Opinion: Policy balance, slowdown in global demand, and more

Here is the best of Business Standard's opinion pieces for Thursday

Standard Chartered raises India's current account deficit estimate to 3.8%

The British bank raised its CAD forecast for fiscal year ending March 2023 to 3.8% of India's GDP from its earlier estimate of 3.0%

India's overall forex reserves to shrink further this year: Deutsche Bank

India's overall foreign exchange reserves will deplete further this year due to a ballooning current account deficit and interventions by the central bank to support the rupee, Deutsche Bank said

Nomura raises India's CAD estimate on fears of slowdown in export

Research house Nomura expects CAD as a share of the gross domestic product to triple this fiscal year, saying that a global economic slowdown will further skew the country's trade imbalances

India keen to settle sovereign bonds domestically to help with CAD

JPMorgan, this week, has sought views from the investors on whether it should include India's sovereign bonds in its GBI-EM Global Diversified Bond Index or not

India sees sharp decline in IT sector's ability to fund trade deficit

A relatively slower growth in IT Services exports has made India ever more dependent on capital inflows and workers remittances to fund its trade and the overall current account deficit

CAD of 2.5-3% can be sustained without external sector crisis: RBI DG Patra

India's economy is predicted to overtake that of the US by 2048, said Patra

Concerns over runaway inflation and CAD seem to have tapered off

India poised to be world's fastest growing economy this year

Trade imbalance

External sector needs careful management

India's trade deficit likely to remain above $20 billion: Barclays

India's trade deficit is likely to remain above $20 billion for an extended period, posing the risk of a wider current account deficit, Barclays said

Pakistan's current account deficit rises to 4-year high of $17.4 bn in FY22

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Wednesday reported that the country recorded a CAD of USD 17.406 billion in FY22 compared to a gap of just USD 2.82 billion in FY21.

Rupee crossing 80 to the dollar is nothing to be startled about

While the impact on other currencies has been sharp with most of them depreciating, the rupee has done well, being somewhere in the middle

India can weather turbulence without damage to credit ratings: S&P

India is likely to lead the region with 7.3 per cent growth in 2022-23 after the GDP grew 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, said the rating agency

CAD expected to deteriorate in FY23 on costlier imports: FinMin report

With regard to corporate sector, the report said, it has begun to show signs of revival with robust growth in net sales in the quarter ending March 2022, assisted by a general recovery in demand

CAD as percentage of GDP: Nowhere near 2012-13 level, yet worrisome

If up to $50 billion is withdrawn from forex reserves to finance CAD, the country would still be able to meet nine month's imports. Any withdrawal beyond this could pose a problem