A budget is a good one if it does not create headlines and that's what the Indian budget has proved to be
Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies reiterates his bullish view, remains structurally overweight on India, and would look to buy Indian stocks on every decline
Global fund managers should keep an eye on the 5-yr forward inflation expectation rate in the US to get a sense of the timing of taper by the US Fed
The portfolio includes marquee stocks such as ICICI Bank, HDFC, Bajaj Finance, and Reliance Industries
Investors should stick with the pro-cyclical commodity trade, particularly energy, Wood said
Global markets, according to a note by Goldman Sachs, are currently underestimating the demand for oil
Besides Wood, analysts at Credit Suisse Wealth Management also recommend hiking exposure to cyclical stocks as they do not see a repeat of the stringent lockdown seen in 2020
The return of inflation fears have been stoked again by the rise in commodity prices, especially oil
The 10-year and 30-year US Treasury finished at 1.34 per cent and 2.13 per cent, respectively, last week
Rising inflation expectations, Wood believes, is one of the reasons that will boost cyclical trades going ahead, and the best way to play this is via bank and oil-related stocks
For the market to have a real nasty unwind at the global level, Wood believes there needs to be a catalyst in the form of an economic downturn or a material tightening in US Fed policy
Despite the investment in bitcoin by trimming exposure to gold, Wood still continues to remain bullish on the yellow metal
Among Indian stocks, besides HDFC, Wood also holds Reliance Industries (RIL), Maruti Suzuki, SBI Life Insurance, DLF and Cipla
GREED & fear's view is that there is a scope for US Fed action inter-meeting if the market action is violent enough
Wood suggests that moratorium could trigger a consumer lending non-performing loans (NPL) cycle
According to reports, official gold reserves in India totaled 653 tonnes at the end of March 2020, while those in Saudi totaled 323 tonnes.
As regards the United States (US), Wood expects a gradual opening up in May
As regards India, Wood remains concerned that the lockdown in the economy continues, which in turn, will impact the consumer lending cycle
Wood believes the Narendra Mod government seems to be prioritising the social agenda over economic issues
Chris Wood believes the best way of hedging long equity exposure is to remain long Eurodollar futures which are now discounting one 25 basis point (bps cut) this year