What will it take to make India a developed nation in the next 25 years?

75 years ago, Jawaharlal Nehru had addressed the nation from here as he laid the foundation of a new nation. And this Monday, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the country from the ramparts of the Red Fort, he laid the foundation of the next 25 years.

The sky was overcast with a slight nip in the air. Wearing a tricolour turban, PM Modi asked people to focus on 'Panchpran', or five promises.

First, to move forward with bigger resolves and the resolve of a developed India. Second, to erase all traces of servitude. Third, to be proud of India’s legacy. Fourth, to focus on India’s unity, which is its strength. And fifth, to fulfil the duties of citizens with honesty.  

But what is the ground situation like? A comparison with the developed countries shows that the government has a long road ahead if it wants to turn India into a developed economy within the next 25 years.

In 2021, India’s per capita income, calculated in international dollars based on purchasing power parity, at 7,333.5 dollars was less than half of China’s in 2021. It was a seventh of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries’ per capita income of 48,482.1 dollars. OECD is a group of developed economies.

While India’s per capita income grew at double the rate of OECD nations in the last 25 years, it would need to grow at 12.4 percent consistently to catch up to OECD countries within the next 25 years. It will have to grow at 8.2 per cent just to reach the level at which they are today.  

India will need to take similar leaps to catch up when it comes to social indicators too. The infant mortality rate-- the number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births -- reduced from 76 in 1996 to 27 in 2020, but it was still over four times the OECD average of six. At the current pace, India will only be able to achieve an infant mortality rate of 10.

Similarly, life expectancy at birth would have to increase faster than it did in the last 25 years to reach OECD levels. At the current pace, it would fall short of OECD economies. India added nine years to life expectancy for both males and females between 1995 and 2020.

Prime Minister Modi also listed equality, specifically equality for women, as one of the five pledges citizens must take. It is a pledge that will challenge the nation on many fronts. One of the bleakest spots is the Female Labour Force Participation Ratio. It has dropped sharply and steadily in the last decade and a half, from 32 per cent in 2005 to just 19.2 per cent in 2021, although the latest data is a small recovery from 18.6 per cent – the lowest in 32 years -- in the first pandemic year of 2020.

However, it is not all gloom. In the recently concluded Commonwealth Games, 40 per cent of India’s medallists were women, though that is lower than the 46.4 per cent in the 2002 Games.

The new clarion call given by the Prime Minister will call for all levels of government, both Centre and state, and all sections of the citizenry, irrespective of caste, creed or religion, to work hand in hand. While policies and their effective implementation will be the primary levers to achieve this goal, ensuring unity, and thus, a unified purpose, should be the first step towards 'Mission 2047'.