Finland's Nato moment

A snub for Putin, a risk for Europe

The election of a conservative government in Finland, defeating the centre-left Social Democrats, led by Sanna Marin, the country’s youngest prime minister (PM), coincides with the Scandinavian country’s entry into the 30-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato). It is notable that Finland, together with Sweden, voted to join the 74-year-old Western defensive alliance in May last year soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. Both countries fear Russian aggression, especially given the fact that the Ukraine invasion was partly launched from the former Soviet republic of Belarus. Finland is especially vulnerable since it shares a 1,340-km land border with Russia and has been under Russian occupation (and also Swedish) in Tsarist times and was the object of expansionist ambitions of Stalin. Today, it is a key escape route for young Russians fleeing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military conscription.

Sweden faces Russia across the Baltic Sea. Finland, though dwarfed by Russia, will add more than 200 combat aircraft and 238,000 troops, including reservists, who count the incoming PM, Petteri Orpo, among them. Ironically, it was Ms Marin who played a leading role in steering Finland’s Nato membership. Initially, the Nato membership of Finland and Sweden had been opposed by Turkey on grounds that they harboured Kurdish terrorists. Since Ankara’s objection was principally to Sweden joining Nato, Helsinki negotiated a separate agreement with Turkey, which finally voted for Finland’s entry on March 30. Sweden’s membership hangs in the balance since, apart from Turkey, Hungary has opposed its entry on account of Stockholm’s criticisms of Hungarian President Viktor Orban’s policies.

Finland’s entry into the Nato club represents another snub to Mr Putin’s grand geo-political strategy against the West. Having predicated his popularity on Russian irredentism and whipped up popular grievances against Nato’s post-Soviet expansion, he now finds himself saddled with more Nato. Indeed, both Finland and Sweden had chosen to remain non-aligned all these years until Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine persuaded them to change their mind. As a result, a little over a year after he launched into his Ukraine adventure, Russia’s western flank is now almost entirely surrounded by Nato countries, with the exception of Belarus, a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and Moldova. Both Ukraine and Georgia, a former CSTO member, had also applied to join Nato last year but have yet to meet certain criteria (such as eliminating corruption).

The fact that Russia illegally occupies territory in both these countries has also deterred the membership process. Instead, both countries have been designated Enhanced Opportunities Partners, something that involves close dialogue and co-operation with Nato, which has been training Ukrainian forces since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Today, there is no doubt that the alliance is doing the heavy lifting in Ukraine in terms of materiel too, provoking Mr Putin to accuse Nato of fighting proxy war. The US, the UK, Germany, Norway, and Turkey have supplied tanks, armoured vehicles, howitzers, long-range missiles, and drones. Finland’s entry, though a triumph for Nato and Helsinki, is likely to ratchet up aggression on both sides. Mr Putin’s threat to go nuclear, including basing tactical weapons in Belarus, has so far been played down by Western security analysts. But his growing frustration over Russia’s inability to make deeper inroads into Ukraine is unlikely to see him back off. Given his reputation for unpredictability, Nato countries on Russia’s borders need to be on full alert.