Will Sensex fall another 1,500pts this week, Nifty test 22,500? Chart check

The BSE Sensex has near key support at 75,150, below which a dip towards 74,400 seems likely. Technical chart shows the Nifty 50 index seems headed towards the 20-month moving average.

The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty 50 snapped its two-week winning streak and finished significantly lower last week amid Donald Trump imposed tariffs, and threatened of equal reciprocal tariffs to all other countries, including India. That apart, unabated selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) weighs on the market sentiment.

 

The FIIs net sold stocks to the tune of Rs 19,000 crore last week; with total sales thus far not crossing the $10 billion mark since the start of the calendar year 2025, i.e. mere six week - the worst sell-off during this period in a decade.

 

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) benchmark index, the Sensex, hit a low of 75,338, and finally ended the week with a loss of 2.5 per cent or 1,921 points at 75,939.

 

 

Among individual Sensex-30 shares - Mahindra & Mahindra was the biggest loser - down 8 per cent at Rs 2,943. Zomato, Power Grid Corporation, Adani Ports, Titan, NTPC, IndusInd Bank and ITC were the other major laggards - down over 5 per cent for the week.

 

Only four out of the Sensex-30 stocks managed to end the week with gains, with Bharti Airtel and Bajaj Finserv as the notable gainers - up over 2 per cent each.

 

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Its counterpart, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark - the Nifty 50 index hit an eight month low at 22,775, and settled with a loss of 2.7 per cent at 22,929. The broader indices on the NSE - the Nifty MidCap and the Nifty SmallCap ended with sharp losses - down 7.4 per cent and 9.6 per cent last week.

 

Will Sensex, Nifty extend losses or can the benchmark indices bounce back? Here's what the technical charts suggest.

 

BSE Sensex

 

Last close: 75,939

 

Support: 75,350 - 75,000 - 74,700

 

Resistance: 76,520 - 76,800 - 77,170

 

Unlike the NSE Nifty, the BSE Sensex has thus far managed to sustain above its January low, which stands at 75,268. However, given the subdued sentiment the Sensex may test its key quarterly support around 75,150 levels this week; below which the major yearly support as per the Fibonacci chart stands at 74,370 levels. Interim support during the week can be anticipated around 75,350 - 75,000 - 74,700 levels.

 

On the upside, the 76,300 level is likely to act as an immediate resistance. The BSE index will need to break and trade consistently above the same, for a likely pullback towards 77,500 levels. Interim resistance for the week is placed at 76,520 - 76,800 - 77,170 levels.

 

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NSE Nifty

 

Last close: 22,929

 

Support: 22,700

 

Resistance: 23,250; 23,450

 

In spite of repeated attempts for a fresh downside breakout, the Nifty managed to hold above the super trend on the daily scale on a closing basis, which stands at 22,927. However, the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) now at 23,979, seems on course to slip below the 50-WMA, which stands at 23,779. In general, traders tend to turn bearish as when this pattern is observed on the charts.

 

Technically, the Nifty 50 seems on course to test its 20-MMA (Monthly Moving Average), which stands at 22,460 levels. Break and trade below the same, can see the index slide towards 21,500 levels.

 

For now, as long as the Nifty manages to sustain above 22,700 levels, some pullback during the week can be expected. On the upside, the index can bounce back to 23,250 and 23,400 levels; with key hurdle seen at 23,800