Global macro in 2022/2023

We are in new terrain, with four problems coming together

Before invading Ukraine, Russia was the world’s biggest exporter of oil, at about 8 million barrels a day. In addition, about a third of Europe's gas supply came from Russia. There is regret among European leaders about mistakes made in energy policy in the past, where pipelines were built to the Russian oil fields. While Russia is sometimes thought of as a superpower, its gross domestic product (GDP) is of Spain’s size, with strengths in two fields: Natural resources and food. The energy export cash flow is critical to the Russian economy and funds the war in Ukraine.

The West is