Covid is not over

Vaccines, sequencing still need govt attention

In many people’s minds, the Covid-19 pandemic is over, but reality provides no such comfort. New cases are again rising, and India’s daily positivity rate has jumped to its highest in over five months. This is in spite of the fact that, of course, testing rates are nowhere near where they were in previous surges. The prevalence of self-administered tests that people are taking at home also means that the total case number may be strongly underestimated, since most people with symptoms will take these home tests that are not entered into the official caseload system unlike if they take a formal RT-PCR test from a recognised laboratory. The question surely is whether this increase in caseload and positivity requires any special policy intervention. Some in government and elsewhere will surely say that, given the high proportion of eligible Indians who have received two shots of a vaccine, and the growing number of those that are taking up the availability of a booster shot, there is no reason for further effort. Deaths are not, after all, rising at quite the same level as in previous surges. This reflects other data that regular vaccines are continuing to provide ample protection against hospitalisation and death even as the Covid-19 virus continues to mutate.

One problem with this theory is the complex of symptoms that are associated with the “long Covid” syndrome. This is only imperfectly understood. But there has certainly been some pioneering research released in the last few months that underlines this virus’ ability to, for example, reach the brain. Those who are re-infected multiple times by Covid-19 are, according to the data, particularly susceptible not just to worse symptoms but also to long Covid. Thus, there is every reason to continue to minimise the number of infections and especially re-infections. This is not a problem that can be easily ignored. The Institute of Fiscal Studies — the most respected economic modelling agency in the UK — said on Tuesday that long Covid might cast a long shadow over the UK economy. About 2 million people have reported long Covid symptoms in the UK; about 110,000 of those have symptoms severe enough that they can no longer go to work. The overall loss to UK workers and the economy is in excess of 1.5 billion British pounds. An equivalent loss of work-hours in India is something that a more precarious workforce can ill afford.

Part of the problem in designing a strategy to control this surge is that genomic sequencing capacity has still not been ramped up. Since doctors do not know which variant they are dealing with, their treatment is not properly designed. Sufferers from Omicron are being told to monitor their oxygen levels as if they had contracted Delta. At an aggregate level, it is unsure how many people have contracted which variant and where. Media driven scares of new variants drive policy and behaviour in irrational ways. Thus, regular testing, masking, and sequencing have to once again be increased. And the vaccination programme should not be considered over, either. It is time to seek out Omicron-focused boosters, and for specific examination of whether Omicron can be better controlled with a mixture of vaccines rather than the currently prescribed all-one-vaccine schedule.