Citi sees chances of global recession nearing 50% due to Ukraine war, Covid

Citigroup is forecasting a near 50% probability of a global recession, as central banks rush to raise interest rates to stamp out inflation that has been partly fueled by the impact of the Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recession is an "increasingly palpable risk" for the economy, Citigroup analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday, while assessing the likely trajectory for global growth over the next 18 months.

"The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth, and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50%," the analysts said.

Several central banks, including the U.S.