Friendly caution.
India-Russia ties hold amid US pressure, but manoeuvres are likely, analysts say
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 "Arvind Subramanian")
 "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Left, And Russian President Vladimir Putin Walk During An Informal Meeting At Novo-Ogaryovo Residence, Outside Moscow, Russia, Monday, July 8, 2024. (Photo: PTI)")
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Left, And Russian President Vladimir Putin Walk During An Informal Meeting At Novo-Ogaryovo Residence, Outside Moscow, Russia, Monday, July 8, 2024. (Photo: PTI)
In late November, some high billboards along arterial roads in and around New Delhi carried cutout photos of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. All sponsored by the Russian state broadcaster Russia Today, one billboard read, “The voice of an old friendship. Clearer than ever.”
Ahead of Putin’s India visit, over December 4 and 5, for a summit meeting with Modi, foreign policy analysts said bilateral strategic ties were firm but manoeuvres in the overall relationship were likely amid pressure from the United States (US).
This would be 23rd in the summit series. The last one was held in Moscow in July 2024. Putin last visited India in 2021, weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump, who announced 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods in August, told the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in September that as top buyers of Russian oil, China and India had become the “primary funders” of the war. He also blamed the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) for “inexcusably” not cutting Russian energy products. But his administration’s more recent 28-point peace plan to end the war included a provision for Ukraine to cede land to Russia.
In November, new official data showed a three-year low in India’s purchase of Russian oil. India, which imports most of its crude oil, got a price deal from Russia since the war started in 2022. India spent $52.7 billion on Russian oil in 2024.
India has moved on from Russia even on arms to diversify sources and manufacture domestically. India imported 76 per cent of its defence goods from Russia between 2009 and 2013, and 36 per cent over 2019-23, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).
India-Russia relations cover defence (military-technical collaboration), security, nuclear energy, and outer space. The “strategic partnership” was formalised during Putin’s India visit in 2000, and upgraded to “special and privileged” 10 years later.
How India-Russia relations progress over Trump’s second tenure (until 2029) will depend on whether the US pressure is persistent and “painful enough to change India’s policy”, Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher with Sipri’s nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation programme, said.
Written By
Arvind Subramanian
 "Arvind Subramanian")
First Published: Dec 19 2025 | 11:55 AM IST
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